NHC Advisories
Tropical weather advisories courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.
- Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
$$
FORECASTER PASCH - Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013): ...JERRY NOT MOVING MUCH... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of JERRY was located near 28.1, -43.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
- Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 11: Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013
000 WTNT31 KNHC 011441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 ...JERRY NOT MOVING MUCH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 43.5W ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST. JERRY IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH - Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 11: Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013
000 WTNT21 KNHC 011441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH - Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 11: Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013
000 WTNT41 KNHC 011442 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION. BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH - Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11: Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013
000 FONT11 KNHC 011441 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 6 8 9 9 15 TROP DEPRESSION 11 21 23 26 25 26 35 TROPICAL STORM 87 71 65 59 57 57 47 HURRICANE 2 5 6 8 8 8 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 4 5 7 8 7 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH - Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics:
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2013 16:38:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2013 15:05:45 GMT